The National Institute of Statistics (INE) has released its monthly report on property rights transactions for November 2023. The data reveals a challenging scenario for the real estate sector, with a 14.4% decrease in home sales compared to the same period last year. This marked decline represents the seventh consecutive month in the red, marking the largest drop since January 2021.
Composition of transactions
Of the analyzed transactions, 19.1% correspond to new homes, while 80.9% are second-hand. This breakdown shows a 7.3% decrease in new home transactions and a more pronounced decline of 15.9% in second-hand homes, indicating a widespread deceleration trend in the market.
Impact on Catalonia
Among the autonomous communities most affected by this slowdown is Catalonia, with a 17% decrease in the number of operations. This decline reflects the specific challenges the region faces in the current economic and market context.
Market forecasts and reality
Despite these concerning figures, the news is not as bleak as it might initially seem. The most pessimistic forecasts circulating earlier in the year suggested a possible 30% drop in sales. However, current figures are closer to 20%, aligning with the predictions of Jaume Domingo, CEO of Living Sitges.
According to Jaume, although the market is experiencing a recession, it is moderate and is primarily attributed to the rising cost of mortgages, linked to economic uncertainty at the moment. Despite these challenges, the real estate sector continues to be considered a safe haven for investment and savings in the current financial landscape.
Sellers’ attitude towards mortgages
A surprising phenomenon amid this situation is the attitude of sellers, who, far from being just a barrier for buyers, have chosen to wait for more favorable times. This decision has led to a decrease in the available supply in the market, as sellers do not feel the urgency to make significant price reductions. Current discounts range around 6%, with a moderate range between 0% and 12%.
Experts suggest that this price stability indicates a phase of adjustment rather than a sharp decline, contrasting with the upturn experienced in 2022 due to hasty purchasing decisions in response to monetary policy. In the case of new homes, the imbalance between supply and demand has led to a 3.6% increase in prices during the second quarter of the year.
In conclusion, the real estate market faces significant challenges, but the moderate outlook and the perception of the sector as a safe haven indicate that, despite the recession, there are opportunities and room for stability as the year progresses.
Article by Living Sitges Real Estate.